Beer

Tariffs Cloud Constellation Brands’ Outlook, Prompting Strategic Shifts

Updated
Apr 12, 2025 4:05 AM
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Constellation Brands, the owner of Corona and Modelo beers, has issued a downbeat profit forecast for fiscal 2026, citing the impact of new U.S. and Canadian tariffs on imported alcohol. The company’s guidance fell below analysts’ expectations, sending a cautionary signal to alcohol industry professionals about the rippling effects of trade tensions on business performance. This report analyzes Constellation’s latest results and outlook, the context of its market position and portfolio changes (including the sale of brands like Cook’s and Meiomi), and the broader implications of the tariff dispute – from pricing and global trade to potential strategic pivots in the alcohol industry.

Weaker Profit Guidance Amid New Tariffs

Constellation Brands lowered its earnings outlook for the newly begun fiscal year 2026 after the announcement of hefty tariffs on alcoholic beverage trade. The firm now projects adjusted earnings per share of $12.60–$12.90, significantly below prior consensus (~$13.97)​. It also trimmed its expected net sales trajectory to between a 2% decline and 1% growth, whereas previously it anticipated 2–4% growth. According to Constellation’s management, these lowered projections “reflect the anticipated impact” of recent U.S. and Canadian tariff measures​.

  • Tariff Impact: On April 2, the U.S. government imposed sweeping new levies – notably a 25% tariff on all imported beer and an expansion of aluminum tariffs to include beverage cans​. This directly targets Constellation’s high-volume Mexican beer imports (e.g. Corona, Modelo) and raises packaging costs. The outlook also accounts for Canada’s retaliatory tariffs from March, when Canada slapped a 25% tariff on U.S. alcohol imports in response​. These trade actions are expected to raise costs and pressure margins across Constellation’s beer, wine, and spirits portfolio. Industry analysts warn that such tariffs will inevitably drive up consumer prices for cocktails, champagne and foreign beers, and could wipe out jobs in the spirits industry if prolonged​.
  • Financial Guidance Cut: Beyond fiscal 2026, Constellation also dialed back its medium-term growth forecasts. Projected organic sales growth for its core beer business was lowered to 2–4% (from a previous 7–9% outlook), reflecting more conservative expectations under the tariff regime. This suggests that Constellation anticipates slower volume growth or pricing challenges ahead, given potential consumer pushback to any price increases stemming from tariffs. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that while recent results were solid, “given the uncertain environment, investor focus is more on the forward outlook”​ – underscoring how trade uncertainty is dominating investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, Constellation’s stock price reaction has been subdued but negative. Shares fell ~3–4% in after-hours trading following the guidance update​. The stock is roughly one-third lower than a year ag, as the company has navigated inflationary pressures and now these trade headwinds.

Solid Q4 Performance vs. Cautious Future

Ironically, the bleak outlook came on the heels of strong fourth-quarter results. In Q4 FY2025 (Dec–Feb), Constellation posted net sales of $2.16 billion – slightly topping analyst estimates – and adjusted EPS of $2.63, beating forecasts handily. Beer sales remained a bright spot, helping lift results. Management also announced a new $4 billion stock buyback program, signaling confidence in the long-term business.

Key performance figures from FY2025 include:

  • Q4 Net Sales: $2.16 billion (vs $2.13B expected), driven by robust beer demand.
  • Q4 Adjusted EPS: $2.63 per share (vs $2.33 expected).
  • FY2025 Beer Segment Sales: $8.54 billion, up ~5% year-over-year​.
  • FY2025 Wine & Spirits Sales: $1.67 billion, about –7% year-over-year (reflecting portfolio divestitures and softer demand).
  • FY2024 Revenue Mix: Beer contributed roughly 82% of total net sales, dwarfing the ~18% from wine and spirits​ (illustrated below).

Figure: FY2024 revenue mix for Constellation Brands by segment. Beer (imported brands like Corona and Modelo) contributed ~82% of total net sales, far outweighing wine & spirits (~18%)​. This heavy reliance on imported beer underscores Constellation’s exposure to tariffs on cross-border trade.

Constellation’s beer division – which includes the top-selling Mexican imports in the U.S. – continues to be the growth engine and profit center of the company. In contrast, the wine and spirits segment has seen “persistently muted” consumer demand, with price-sensitive shoppers pulling back in recent quarters. The divergence in performance has been a driving factor in Constellation’s strategic reorientation (discussed below). Notably, the company indicated that wine and spirits operating income could drop by up to 100% in FY2026​ – essentially falling to break-even – due to the combination of divestitures (losing some revenue streams) and tariff impacts on exports. This reinforces why Constellation is moving decisively to restructure that side of the business.

Analyst Reaction: Despite the near-term challenges, some analysts see a silver lining in Constellation’s proactive moves. “This is a healthy step, in particular making hard decisions on asset sales and setting more realistic beer growth goals,” wrote Bank of America analysts in a client note, referring to the revised guidance and portfolio changes. The implication is that Constellation’s management is confronting harsh realities head-on – by adjusting forecasts and streamlining operations – which could position the company better for long-term resilience.

Market Position and Brand Portfolio Context

Constellation Brands is one of the largest players in the U.S. alcohol market, with a unique positioning straddling beer, wine, and spirits. Thanks to its wildly popular Mexican beer imports, Constellation is now the #2 beer supplier in the U.S. by sales (behind only AB InBev)​. The company’s crown jewels are its imported beer portfolio, anchored by Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, Pacifico, and Victoria, among others. These high-end beer brands have enjoyed robust growth, capitalizing on consumer trends favoring Mexican imports and premium lagers. In fact, Modelo Especial recently became the top-selling beer in the U.S. market – a milestone that has further solidified Constellation’s beer dominance.

On the wine and spirits side, Constellation has historically been a major player as well, especially after a string of acquisitions in the 2000s and 2010s. It owns renowned wine labels across price tiers – from popular names like Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi and Meiomi (a California Pinot Noir), to luxury and fine wine brands such as Robert Mondavi Winery (Napa Valley), The Prisoner Wine Co., Kim Crawford (New Zealand), and high-end imports like Ruffino (Italy). In spirits, Constellation’s portfolio includes craft distillers and niche premium brands – for example, High West Whiskey, Nelson’s Green Brier Tennessee Whiskey, and Casa Noble Tequila. This broad portfolio makes Constellation a multi-category alcoholic beverage leader with global reach (operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy, and more)​.

However, market trends have not treated all parts of the portfolio equally. Over the past several years, beer has outperformed wine for Constellation by a wide margin. The beer business – fueled by double-digit growth in brands like Modelo – has been one of the fastest-growing in the industry. Constellation’s beer segment revenue has grown steadily (5–10% annually in recent years), with healthy margins. In contrast, wine and spirits have stagnated or declined, squeezed by changing consumer preferences and intense competition. Mainstream wine brands in particular have faced headwinds as consumer tastes shift toward either premium wines or other beverages (such as craft beer, cocktails, and ready-to-drink options). Constellation found itself with a stable of lower-priced “value” wine labels that were slowly eroding in sales and profit contribution.

To adapt, Constellation embarked on a multi-year pivot towards premiumization – focusing on higher-end, higher-margin products while shedding lower-end assets. CEO Bill Newlands has articulated a strategy to “reconfigure our business” toward “a portfolio of higher-end wine and craft spirits brands that are aligned to evolving consumer preferences”, complementing the high-end beer lineup. In practice, this meant pruning the portfolio of brands that no longer fit the growth profile.

Portfolio Restructuring: Sale of Cook’s, Meiomi, and Other Brands

One of the notable moves coinciding with the tariff news is Constellation’s decision to sell several wine brands that it deems underperforming or non-core. On April 9, 2025, Constellation announced a deal to divest a number of its popular but lower-priced wine labels – including Cook’s (sparkling wine) and Meiomi, as well as the Woodbridge and Robert Mondavi Private Selection lines, SIMI winery, and J. Rogét sparkling – to California-based The Wine Group​. These brands collectively represent a significant portion of Constellation’s “mainstream” wine segment. The transaction, expected to close in early fiscal 2026, will fetch an estimated $900 million in proceeds. It also involves transferring wineries, vineyards, and production facilities associated with those brands to The Wine Group.

Strategic Rationale: By offloading these labels, Constellation is effectively exiting the lower-priced wine business to focus on premium categories. Brands like Cook’s (a mass-market sparkling wine) and Woodbridge (a high-volume, value wine line) still sell in large quantities but tend to have thin margins and limited growth prospects. Their sale frees up resources and management attention for Constellation to invest behind more premium wine brands (e.g. Meiomi was actually a mid-priced brand, but it had high volume; its inclusion suggests Constellation is willing to let go of even some strong sellers if they don’t fit the upscale focus). Going forward, Constellation’s wine portfolio will consist “predominantly [of] brands priced $15 and above”, such as Robert Mondavi Winery (the flagship high-end label) and Kim Crawford​. This aligns with broader consumer trends, as the company notes – there is growth in the higher-priced wine segment (premium and luxury wines), whereas lower-priced wine consumption has been flat or declining.

Constellation is no stranger to shedding assets to improve its portfolio mix. A few years ago, it sold a large set of budget wine brands (like Clos du Bois, Black Box, etc.) to E.&J. Gallo in a separate deal. The latest divestiture to The Wine Group essentially completes Constellation’s transformation of its wine & spirits business into a leaner, upmarket-oriented operation. Alongside the sale, Constellation is undertaking an organizational review to streamline costs – expecting over $200 million in annual savings by FY2028 from reducing its overhead and adjusting its structure post-divestment​.

From a financial perspective, these changes mean Constellation will rely even more heavily on its beer segment for growth and profit in coming years. Beer already accounts for over four-fifths of revenue, and an even greater share of profits. Post-divestiture, wine and spirits will be a much smaller (albeit higher-margin) portfolio focused on niche premium brands. This could make the company more agile and profitable in the long run, but it also concentrates risk – especially given the current tariff situation that directly affects the beer business.

Notably, Constellation flagged that its wine and spirits revenue will drop after the sale (losing the volume from those brands) – contributing to the flat/negative overall sales outlook for FY2026. However, by trimming down to premium lines, the hope is that growth will eventually accelerate (since those remaining brands have better prospects) and margins will improve.

Industry observers have generally approved of these portfolio moves. The Wine Group deal and the renewed focus on premiumization were seen as “tough but necessary” steps. As mentioned, Bank of America analysts praised the asset sales and realistic re-setting of growth expectations. It’s a signal that Constellation’s management is playing the long game – willing to endure a near-term hit to revenues in exchange for a stronger foundation.

Tariff Details: U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute and Alcohol Imports

The tariffs casting a shadow over Constellation’s outlook stem from an escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and its trading partners (notably Canada, Mexico, and Europe) in early 2025. Industry professionals need to understand the specifics of these measures, as they have far-reaching implications for anyone importing or exporting alcoholic beverages:

  • U.S. “Reciprocal” Tariffs (April 2025): The U.S. administration, under President Donald Trump, abruptly announced a 10% blanket tariff on all imported goods effective April 2025, alongside targeted 25% tariffs on certain categories​. In the drinks sector, the most impactful was a 25% import duty on beer​. This applies to all beer entering the U.S., hitting Mexican beer (Constellation’s portfolio, Heineken’s Tecate and Dos Equis, etc.), European beer (e.g. Heineken, Stella Artois), and others. Simultaneously, the U.S. expanded its existing tariffs on aluminum (initially on raw aluminum) to also cover imported aluminum beer cans​. For brewers like Constellation that import finished product in cans or rely on imported aluminum for packaging, this raises costs further. There were indications that wine and spirits from Europe would also be affected by the general 10% tariff, effectively ending a prior tariff détente in transatlantic trade​. For example, French Champagne and Scotch whisky, which had escaped tariffs after a 2021 US-EU trade truce, are again facing levies – hence warnings about champagne and cocktail prices rising​.
  • Canadian Retaliatory Tariffs (March 2025): In response to U.S. measures on steel, aluminum, or other goods (and specifically to the prospect of U.S. tariffs on its exports), Canada imposed a 25% tariff on a range of U.S. products including alcoholic beverages​. Effective March 4, 2025, all American wines, spirits, and beer entering Canada now carry a hefty 25% surcharge. This directly impacts U.S. wineries and distillers that export to Canada – a significant market for California wines and Kentucky bourbon, for instance. Constellation’s remaining U.S.-made wines (like Mondavi) will become more expensive for Canadian distributors and consumers, potentially denting sales. The retaliation also had an immediate symbolic impact: Provincial liquor stores in Canada reportedly pulled American spirits and wines off their shelves once the tariffs hit, showcasing the severity of the standoff. Canadian officials have stated these tariffs will remain in place “until the U.S. eliminates its tariffs against Canadian goods”, linking their duration to U.S. policy reversals.
  • Mexico and EU Responses: Mexico, being directly targeted by the U.S. beer tariff, has protested the move, though as of April 2025 it’s not clear if Mexico imposed its own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods (it likely held off to see negotiations play out, or perhaps focused on diplomacy given the importance of its beer exports to the U.S.). The European Union – which saw the U.S. suddenly re-impose tariffs on its products after a period of trade peace – has decried the U.S. actions and hinted at retaliation as well. European leaders warned of an “all-out global trade war” if the U.S. did not relent​. The EU has historically targeted American whiskey and other quintessential U.S. products in trade disputes, and there were reports that the EU was considering reviving tariffs on items like American bourbon at even higher rates. (Notably, media sources said the EU was prepared to impose a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey starting April 2025 if trade talks failed, which would significantly escalate the conflict.)

In a surprising twist shortly after the initial tariff announcements, President Trump signaled a partial pullback: he announced a 90-day pause on many of the new tariffs and a plan to replace them with a “substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff” of 10% on imports broadly. While this created some confusion, the beer-specific 25% tariff was left in place (per statements at the time). For Constellation and others, the key takeaway is that the trade environment is highly volatile – policy changes could come swiftly, but so far the burden of tariffs remains a real risk.

Implications for Imported Alcohol

For alcohol brand owners and importers, these tariff measures have immediate and concrete impacts:

  • Cost Increases and Pricing Dilemmas: A 25% import tariff is essentially a tax that either the importer must absorb (hitting margins) or pass on via price increases. Constellation’s beer margins, which are healthy but already tightened by commodity inflation, would suffer if the company eats the cost. The alternative – raising U.S. prices on Corona, Modelo, etc. by a similar magnitude – risks cooling demand. Distributors and retailers will also feel the pinch, as higher wholesale costs flow through the supply chain. For context, U.S. consumers have shown some willingness to pay premium prices for imported beers, but a sudden significant hike could push some to switch to cheaper domestically-produced alternatives. In the case of wine and spirits, European imports (single malt Scotch, French cognac, Champagne, Italian prosecco, etc.) could see double-digit price jumps on store shelves if tariffs stick, potentially dampening sales and benefiting local producers in the U.S. or non-tariffed countries. Pricing strategies will be a key challenge: companies must decide how much of the tariff to absorb vs. pass on, and how to communicate any price changes to consumers without damaging brand loyalty.
  • Competitive Shifts: Tariffs can reshuffle competitive dynamics in surprising ways. In beer, for example, Constellation and other import-focused brewers now face a handicap versus brewers of domestic products. An American brewer like Molson Coors (which produces Miller, Coors, etc. largely within the U.S.) is not directly taxed by the import tariff, so its cost base remains comparatively lower. If Constellation raises prices on Modelo Especial due to the tariff, it potentially widens the price gap between Modelo and a domestic beer like Coors Light, which could slow Modelo’s share gains. This comes at a time when Constellation was capitalizing on domestic rivals’ weakness (e.g. the Bud Light backlash) – now the playing field could tilt back a bit. Imported wine and spirits face a similar disadvantage: a U.S. consumer considering a French Champagne vs. a California sparkling wine might lean toward the now-cheaper domestic option. In Canada, domestic Canadian whisky and craft beer will enjoy a 25% price advantage over American bourbon or U.S. craft beer for the duration of Canada’s tariffs. Over time, such shifts could alter market share distributions if trade barriers persist.
  • Supply Chain and Sourcing Responses: One classic industry response to tariffs is to adjust sourcing or production to avoid the tariff jurisdiction. However, in the alcohol industry this is often not feasible due to the nature of the products. As the Distilled Spirits Council’s CEO Chris Swonger pointed out, many spirits (and wines) are geographically tied“distinctive products” like Bourbon, Scotch, or Cognac “cannot simply be moved to another country” for production​. A Corona beer is brewed in Mexico – shifting production into the U.S. would be a monumental task involving new breweries, and in some cases intellectual property or legal restrictions. (Constellation’s rights to Corona in the U.S. stem from an agreement with AB InBev that may or may not allow domestic production; currently all Corona/Modelo sold in the U.S. is brewed in Mexico). In spirits, you simply cannot distill Scotch whisky in America or make Champagne outside of France under those names due to appellation laws. So unlike, say, an auto manufacturer that can consider building a factory in Texas instead of importing from Canada, alcohol companies have limited short-term options to re-route production. Over a longer horizon, we might see new facilities or localization – for instance, foreign companies could invest in U.S. production of certain products (consider how some international breweries have built U.S. plants in the past). But these are multi-year solutions at best; Constellation cannot quickly replace its Mexican supply without massive capital expenditure and likely brand equity concerns. Thus, the industry is somewhat stuck with the tariffs and must mitigate via pricing and cost efficiencies rather than relocation.
  • Global Trade Tensions: The alcohol sector is once again caught in the crossfire of broader trade disputes. International trade in alcohol had enjoyed a period of tariff-free flow between key partners until recent years. (For example, since 1997, the U.S. and EU had a “zero-for-zero” agreement on spirits tariffs​, which helped whiskey, vodka, etc., trade freely – that harmony was disrupted only in 2018 during the steel/aluminum dispute, then restored in 2021). The re-emergence of tariffs threatens to reverse those gains. Industry groups are raising alarms: The Toasts Not Tariffs coalition – representing wine and spirits trade bodies – stated that ongoing trade disputes “continue to unfairly harm our industry”, and called on U.S. leadership to restore reciprocal tariff-free trade as soon as possible​. Their plea underscores that the uncertainty is bad for business planning and investment. Should the U.S.-Canada-Europe tariff battle intensify, we could see more protective moves – e.g. Europe targeting U.S. wine or spirits in retaliation. (During the 2018–2021 clash, the EU’s 25% tariff contributed to a 20% plunge in American whiskey exports to Europe over that period​) Such declines illustrate how quickly sales can be choked off when products suddenly become much more expensive in a market. Beverage alcohol is often used as a high-visibility pawn in trade wars (because iconic products like bourbon or Champagne carry political weight), but the industry tends to suffer collateral damage in return.

Industry Responses and Strategic Implications

With tariffs now a central concern, alcohol industry leaders and associations are actively responding. U.S. industry groups – including the Distilled Spirits Council, Wine Institute, Beer Institute, and others – have been lobbying strongly against these trade barriers. Chris Swonger of DISCUS urged a quick negotiated resolution, imploring “President Trump to liberate the U.S. spirits sector from these tariff disputes” and return to zero tariffs, noting how well the industry flourished under free trade​. The Toasts Not Tariffs coalition similarly pressed for diplomacy to remove tariffs and highlighted the damaging effect of Canada’s retaliation (with American-made wines/spirits being delisted by Canadian retailers)​. These organizations are providing data to governments about the jobs and economic value at stake – for example, how many American winery and distillery jobs depend on export markets and could be threatened if the trade war continues.

On the corporate front, companies are making strategic adjustments. Constellation’s moves (cutting costs, shedding low-margin brands) are one form of adaptation to a tougher climate. Others may consider different tactics:

  • Some large multinational brewers and distillers might increase hedging and inventory planning – e.g. rushing shipments before tariffs kick in (pre-stocking) or finding creative customs strategies (like importing in bulk and bottling domestically to reduce tariffable value). There’s also the possibility of supply chain reconfiguration: for instance, a European spirits company might route some exports through subsidiaries in countries not subject to tariffs (though rules of origin often prevent this from avoiding duties).
  • Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) could accelerate as firms seek to bolster their domestic portfolios or diversify geographical risk. If imported products become less profitable, a company might acquire a local brand to maintain sales. We could hypothetically see import-focused players like Constellation consider tie-ups with domestic producers. (Constellation’s own trajectory has largely been the opposite – benefiting from imports – but the new reality might make owning U.S.-based production more attractive.) Additionally, smaller import-reliant companies may look to merge with larger ones that have more resources to weather tariff costs. The uncertainty and margin squeeze might unfortunately drive some niche import businesses out of the market, which then opens M&A opportunities for stronger competitors to scoop up brands at a discount.
  • Market Diversification: Brands facing barriers in one country may pivot focus to other markets. For example, if U.S. tariffs make European wine less competitive in America, some exporters will put more emphasis on Asia or Latin America to make up volume. Similarly, American whiskey producers stung by Canada/EU might double down on Australia or Japan if those lanes remain open. Diversifying market exposure is a classic hedging strategy in trade turmoil.
  • Innovation and Portfolio Shifts: Companies might innovate with new products that can be produced domestically to substitute imports. In the beer arena, if imported Mexican lager becomes pricier, breweries might develop “Mexican-style lager” products brewed in the U.S. to offer consumers a similar taste without the tariff cost. (Craft breweries have in fact made Mexican-style lagers in recent years; large brewers could do the same on a bigger scale.) In spirits, while you can’t recreate a Scotch, you might see American single malts or Japanese whiskies try to fill the gap. Constellation itself could leverage its ownership in a Mexican brewery to possibly brew different styles not just limited to the Mexican-origin brands, although brand strength of Corona/Modelo is not easily replicated.

Ultimately, the strategic calculus for industry players in this environment involves balancing short-term financial hits with long-term positioning. Constellation’s example – cutting guidance, tightening its belt, and focusing on its strongest assets – provides a case study in managing through uncertainty. The company is signaling to shareholders and competitors alike that it will not sit idle: it’s proactively adjusting to preserve profitability and emerge stronger when the dust settles.

Strategic Takeaways for Alcohol Brand Owners

For professionals and brand owners navigating these developments, several key takeaways and lessons emerge:

  • 1. Trade Policy Can Directly Hit the Bottom Line: Geopolitical decisions like tariffs are not abstract – they have material impact on sales, costs, and earnings. Companies must stay vigilant to policy changes and engage in advocacy through industry groups to protect their interests. Building relationships with trade officials and having contingency plans for different tariff scenarios is now an essential part of strategic planning in the alcohol business.
  • 2. Importance of Portfolio Balance and Flexibility: Constellation’s heavy reliance on imported beer has been a boon in good times, but it also illustrates concentration risk. A diversified portfolio across geographies or a more balanced domestic/import mix can provide a hedge. Brand owners should evaluate their exposure – e.g., if all your production is in one country, consider investing in alternative sourcing or license agreements as a fallback. Flexibility to pivot (as Constellation did by shedding underperforming segments) is crucial when external factors change the playing field.
  • 3. Premiumization as a Buffer: The focus on premium, higher-margin products can help offset volume pressures. Consumers loyal to premium brands may be more willing to absorb moderate price increases, which can help brands maintain profitability even as costs rise. Constellation keeping its high-end wine labels and offloading value brands reflects a broader industry trend of betting on premiumization for resilience​. However, premiumization must be paired with strong brand equity – in a tariff scenario, a strong brand can justify a price hike, whereas a weak brand would simply lose customers.
  • 4. Cost Management and Efficiency: When facing margin compression (from tariffs or otherwise), internal cost-saving efforts become vital. Constellation’s planned $200+ million in cost savings by 2028 from restructuring​ is one example of shoring up defenses. Other companies may need to cut operational fat, improve supply chain efficiency, or delay non-critical investments to conserve cash during the uncertainty.
  • 5. Don’t Underestimate Consumer Perception: If price increases are necessary, how they are communicated can influence consumer response. There is a risk of consumers attributing greed to companies raising prices, rather than understanding the tariff cause. Companies might consider transparent messaging – for instance, communicating that price changes are due to tariff costs outside the company’s control. During the last U.S.-EU tariff spat, some whiskey producers openly discussed the tariff impact with their customers to explain why export prices rose. A people-first, transparent approach can help maintain trust.
  • 6. Long-Term Vision Despite Short-Term Hits: As evidenced by analyst commentary, investors and stakeholders appreciate when companies make tough decisions that favor long-term health over short-term optics. Brand owners should not shy away from strategic pivots (be it divesting a beloved but lagging brand, or changing go-to-market strategy) if data shows it’s necessary. The alcohol industry has enduring appeal and growth opportunities, but agility is key to navigate cycles. Companies that use this turbulent period to strengthen their core (just as Constellation doubles down on its strongest brands) will likely be best positioned once the external pressures abate.

In conclusion, Constellation Brands’ recent experience serves as both a warning and a guidepost for the industry. The warning is clear: global trade tensions can abruptly alter business fortunes – even for market leaders – demanding rapid strategy shifts. Yet the response by Constellation’s management, demonstrating transparency, agility, and commitment to a high-value strategy, exemplifies a path forward. Alcohol industry professionals should watch these developments closely. The hope is that diplomatic resolutions will ease the tariff burdens in coming months (as negotiations are indeed underway), but hope is not a strategy. Preparing for a protracted period of trade friction, while continuing to delight consumers and innovate, will separate the winners from the also-rans in this new chapter of the global drinks business. As the saying goes, “cheers to the prepared.”